Nevada Las Vegas

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	23.0
Current RPI:	23
Expected SOS:	17
Current SOS:	17
Current Record:	24-9
Expected Record:	24-9
Current Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Conf Record:	12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-0
Current OOC Record:	12-2
Expected OOC Record:	12-2
Expected OOC RPI:	23
Expected OOC SOS:	73

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-9	23.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nevada Las Vegas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	H	92-54	W	100%
11-17	Jacksonville St. (142.0)	OVC	H	77-58	W	100%
11-23	Oregon (48.0)	P12	H	79-83	L	0%
11-24	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	H	82-70	W	100%
11-28	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	H	85-57	W	100%
12-1	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	H	77-63	W	100%
12-4	Portland (231.0)	WCC	A	60-68	W	100%
12-9	California (54.0)	P12	A	75-76	W	100%
12-17	Texas El Paso (95.0)	CUSA	A	60-62	W	100%
12-19	Northern Iowa (83.0)	MVC	H	73-59	W	100%
12-22	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	H	89-74	W	100%
12-29	North Carolina (17.0)	ACC	A	79-73	L	0%
1-3	Chicago St. (320.0)	GWC	H	74-52	W	100%
1-5	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	H	84-63	W	100%
1-9	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	A	65-60	L	0%
1-12	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	H	76-71	W	100%
1-16	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	A	75-82	W	100%
1-19	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	A	66-61	L	0%
1-24	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	H	62-50	W	100%
1-29	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	H	66-54	W	100%
2-2	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	A	77-72	L	0%
2-6	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	A	64-55	L	0%
2-9	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	H	64-55	W	100%
2-13	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	A	71-56	L	0%
2-16	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	H	72-70	W	100%
2-20	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	H	61-59	W	100%
2-23	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	A	42-65	W	100%
3-2	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	A	63-80	W	100%
3-5	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	H	68-64	W	100%
3-9	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	H	52-61	L	0%
3-13	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	H	72-56	W	100%
3-15	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	H	75-65	W	100%
3-16	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	H	56-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nevada Las Vegas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Nevada Las Vegas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Nevada Las Vegas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	26.53	26.53	71.11	71.11	11.20	11.20
New Mexico	MWC	5.50	5.50	87.10	87.10	4.08	4.08
Colorado St.	MWC	5.49	5.49	78.57	78.57	3.14	3.14
Air Force	MWC	5.34	5.34	56.00	56.00	0.64	0.64
Wyoming	MWC	4.06	4.06	60.71	60.71	0.87	0.87
San Diego St.	MWC	4.04	4.04	71.43	71.43	1.73	1.73
Nevada	MWC	3.98	3.98	39.29	39.29	-0.85	-0.85
Fresno St.	MWC	3.98	3.98	26.92	26.92	-1.84	-1.84
Boise St.	MWC	3.93	3.93	66.67	66.67	1.31	1.31
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	1.79	1.79	40.00	40.00	-0.36	-0.36
UC Irvine	BW	1.70	1.70	56.25	56.25	0.21	0.21
Oregon	P12	1.69	1.69	75.76	75.76	0.87	0.87
Portland	WCC	1.68	1.68	31.03	31.03	-0.64	-0.64
Texas El Paso	CUSA	1.61	1.61	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Hawaii	BW	1.61	1.61	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.59	1.59	35.48	35.48	-0.46	-0.46
California	P12	1.59	1.59	66.67	66.67	0.53	0.53
Jacksonville St.	OVC	1.56	1.56	60.00	60.00	0.31	0.31
Canisius	MAAC	1.52	1.52	60.00	60.00	0.30	0.30
Chicago St.	GWC	1.52	1.52	25.93	25.93	-0.73	-0.73
Iowa St.	B12	1.52	1.52	68.75	68.75	0.57	0.57
North Carolina	ACC	1.52	1.52	68.75	68.75	0.57	0.57
Northern Iowa	MVC	1.52	1.52	56.67	56.67	0.20	0.20
Colorado	P12	0.38	0.38	65.62	65.62	0.12	0.12
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.32	0.32	31.03	31.03	-0.12	-0.12
Long Beach St.	BW	0.25	0.25	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Pacific	BW	0.25	0.25	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
UC Riverside	BW	0.23	0.23	14.29	14.29	-0.17	-0.17
UCLA	P12	0.22	0.22	73.53	73.53	0.10	0.10
Washington	P12	0.22	0.22	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.21	0.21	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.21	0.21	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.20	0.20	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.20	0.20	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.20	0.20	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Utah	P12	0.19	0.19	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.18	0.18	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Denver	WAC	0.17	0.17	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
UC Davis	BW	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.16	0.16	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
Montana St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.15	0.15	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.15	0.15	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Idaho	WAC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.14	0.14	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.13	0.13	18.18	18.18	-0.08	-0.08
Wichita St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
North Florida	ASun	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.12	0.12	79.31	79.31	0.07	0.07
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.11	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.10	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Portland St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	23.08	23.08	-0.05	-0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Weber St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Valparaiso	Horz	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.08	0.08	21.43	21.43	-0.05	-0.05
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.07	0.07	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Syracuse	BE	0.07	0.07	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.07	0.07	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
Tulane	CUSA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Maryland	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.05	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.04	0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.02	0.02	19.35	19.35	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.02	0.02	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.02	0.02	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00